Tunisia Economic Outlook 2014

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articlemostwanted - In the situation of a political and security disaster, Tunisia recorded reasonable growth of 2.6% in 2013, degraded from the 2012 level (3.7%).
Development is expected to speed up in 2014 and 2015 in the quieter atmosphere brought about by the implementation of a new charter and the establishment of a transitional administration composed of technocrats.

Tunisia’s reappearance to tough growth will need a justification of public spending and efficient oversight of the monetary sector, the labor market and asset.
Tunisia recorded growth of 2.6% in 2013, under the legitimate forecast (4.5%) and the 2012 level (3.7%). This stoppage can be clarified by political gridlock, the deteriorating of the security condition, a delicate social situation, inactivity in the euro area (the country’s chief client and chief supplier), and a 3.3% weakening in agricultural manufacture.

Unanticipated resilience was shown by the key areas of tourism (+2% in hard-currency revenues) and export business (with growth of 6%), assisted by the devaluation of the dinar (10% against the euro, 6.7% against the US dollar). Employment also presented timid development, by the unemployment ratio decreasing to 15.7% in the third quarter of 2013 from 17 % in the similar period a year earlier. Unemployment between young alumni nevertheless remains at an intensely worrisome level (34%, or one out of three), due to a broadening gap among their skills and the needs of industries.

The chief macroeconomic pointers deteriorated and social wasting, notably power subsidies, weighed severely on financial balances.
Growth is expected to restart in 2014 and 2015, carrying an end to the event of recession that happened in 2011 (-1.8%). And the present account shortfall is expected to reduce in 2014 through economic revival and the return of tourism.

Tunisia is traditionally well united into global value chains (GVCs), particularly in three manufacturing sectors: textiles and clothing; agro-business; and the mechanical, electrical and electronics manufacture. The best development took place in the final, cheers to the growth of automotive and aeronautics machineries, by exports continuing by an average 18% per year from 2000 to 2012. Tunisia’s three key business sectors account for 75% of the country’s exporting companies, and in excess of 65% of jobs in industry. Latest activities such as information and communication technologies have established recently, however their incorporation into GVCs has been limited to subcontracting links by limited added value, and they continue focused geographically along the shore. Tunisia’s integration into GVCs is being motivated by free-trade arrangements with the European Union (EU), but it is handicapped by many problems including trade and investment rules, the business weather, logistics, transport, regional inequities, and technology handovers.

source: afdb